Sunday, August 7, 2011

Playing with Numbers

Hello fellow owners and PFBL followers! I've been trying to figure out why my team continues to languish in 6th place, even after pulling two trades to strengthen it. As often is the case, this led me to Play with the Numbers. Now, my fellow owners of PFBL are relatively aware that this is something I do frequently, but generally only to support an argument (or start one).

Apparently there are other types of Fantasy Leagues called ROTO. In this foreign concept league, they generally play 5X5 stat categories where the goal is to win by winning individual categories (I really have no idea how it works). Anyway, I decided to look at our league as a 9X9 using all of our stat categories. In this way, I thought I would be able to pickup on any glaring weaknesses my team has, and try to address it. It turns out that my team is a generally middle of the pack kind of team across the board; not much help to be found there.

But, I did find a few interesting nuggets, and thought I would share...
**(A few disclaimers before diving in- 1. Stats used were before Sunday's games. 2. RP stats only include SV/BSV-any counting stats, ER, K, BB, were included in SP 3. I excluded the Cycle & NH stats as there have been so few; this made it a 9X9)**
What I've done is taken a composite ranking based on each teams ranking of each stat category. This means, a low number is better. (If you are 1st in Hits, 3 in 1B, 1st in 2B, you would have a composite score of 1.66)

Current PFBL Standings:

Offensive rankings:

SP rankings:
  • Unc wins the SP race to this point (Halladay & Weaver anyone?)
  • Zac quite clearly has the worst SP
  • JT's IP (1st) bolsters his staff which apparently likes to give up a lot of ER (8th) & BB (9th)
  • Nate also has a surprisingly high ranking on IP (4th) to end up next to last

RP rankings:
  • There may have been a fallacy here as Jay dominates the RP
  • Both Unc and I have the dreaded BSV to thank for poor performance here (tied for 9th)

Overall Pitching rankings:
  • Is there a higher correlation between Pitching rank and Standings than Offense rank?

Final Analysis:

  • Is there a change coming in the standings soon? Jay & JT to flip-flop? Nate & Zac too?
  • Is KC Comebacks fielding a better team than a manager?
  • Are Matt M's Pitching ranks intentionally deflated with a pitch & ditch planned? Will 16 remaining moves be enough if so?
  • Can Unc hold off Regan down the stretch?
  • Will JT run out of IP before he can close the gap?
Lots of questions still to be answered as we start down the stretch run.

If you find this post interesting or entertaining, let me know!

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