Monday, March 12, 2012

PFBL 2012 Keepers

For those unfamiliar with the term, a 'keeper' is a player from your roster the year before who will automatically be placed on your roster the next season. According to the PFBL bylaws, every team gets to keep three players: one batter, one pitcher, and a last of either type. The deadline to select keepers passed last Saturday. Rather than just list the keepers for each team, I have taken the liberty to rank each team's selections to give you loyal OSITF readers better context to analyze the selections. 

The Seattle Mariners did not keep Michael Pineda.  Will he be a keeper in the PFBL?  Photo by Associated Press.
The most important criteria when it comes to keepers is the player's overall fantasy value, because at the end of the season, the PFBL trophy is awarded to the team that put up the most points.  In the PFBL, keepers are slotted in the draft according to the round that they were drafted in the previous year--e.g. if you found a seventh round bargain last season, as your keeper this year he will still be your seventh round pick.  This rule allows teams to select the same late-round keeper year after year after year.

Obviously, the later your can draft your keeper, the better--so that you can use the earlier rounds on other, better players.  So in the PFBL, keepers have draft value that is easily calculated by taking the difference between where they will be kept and where they would normally be drafted in a non-keeper league.  My rankings below take into account both fantasy value as well as draft value, with the understanding that in the end, fantasy value is what is most important--since the degree that a team takes advantage of keeper draft value will ultimately be based on the strength of its non-keeper picks.

Behold, the PFBL 2012 keeper power rankings:

10. BackSliders
The downside to being an expansion team is that you have no players to keep.  The upside is that you will get the top overall (non-keeper) pick.  Good luck with that.

9. Hosmer & Record 6
Ian Kinsler - Tier 1 2B, 4th round, 38th pick, Average Draft Position in Yahoo leagues (ADP) 21.4, draft value 16.6 
Brandon Beachy - Tier 4 SP, 21st round, 203rd pick, ADP 122.8, draft value 80.2
Eric Hosmer - Tier 3 1B, 22nd round, 218th pick, ADP 74.5, draft value 143.5

8. One Bad Pitch
Josh Hamilton - Tier 2 OF, 9th round, 85th pick, ADP 33.8, draft value 51.2
Félix Hernández - Tier 2 SP, 10th round, 96th pick, ADP 30.5, draft value 65.5
Adam Wainwright - Tier 3 SP, 22nd round, 216th pick, ADP 106.6, draft value 109.4

7. Bizarro Royals
Matt Kemp - Tier 1 OF, 3rd round, 22nd pick, ADP 2.5, draft value 19.5
Michael Pineda - Tier 3 SP, 21st round, 202nd pick, ADP 106, draft value 96
Desmond Jennings - Tier 2 OF, 22nd round, 219th pick, ADP 47.7, draft value 171.3

6. Colorado TumbleWeed
Troy Tulowitzki - Tier 1 SS, 6th round, 55th pick, ADP 5, draft value 50
C.J. Wilson - Tier 2 SP, 10th round, 95th pick, ADP 84.9, draft value 10.1
Stephen Strasburg - Tier 3 SP, 22nd round, 215th pick, ADP 56.9, draft value 158.1

5. Devil wears Prado
Justin Verlander - Tier 1 SP, 3rd round, 24th pick, ADP 13, draft value 11
Zack Greinke - Tier 2 SP, 11th round, 104th pick, ADP 44.7, draft value 59.3
Alex Gordon - Tier 2 OF, 22nd round, 217th pick, ADP 71.2, draft value 145.8

4. Bloomington Baseball
Justin Upton - Tier 1 OF, 14th round, 134th pick, ADP 12, draft value 122
Craig Kimbrel - Tier 1 RP, 21st round, 207th pick, ADP 49.4, draft value 157.6
Starlin Castro - Tier 3 SS, 22nd round, 214th pick, ADP 40.1, draft value 173.9

3. Pioneer Skies
Joey Votto - Tier 2 1B, 5th round, 49th pick, ADP 8.1, draft value 40.9
Jacoby Ellsbury - Tier 1 OF, 9th round, 89th pick, ADP 12.5, draft value 76.5
David Price - Tier 2 SP, 14th round, 132nd pick, ADP 53.4, draft value 78.6

2. Left Outs
Roy Halladay - Tier 1 SP, 4th round, 33rd pick, ADP 15.9, draft value 17.1
Jered Weaver - Tier 2 SP, 11th round, 108th pick, ADP 35.3, draft value 72.7
José Bautista - Tier 1 3B/Tier 1 OF, 22nd round, 213th pick, ADP 5.6, draft value 207.4

1. Bo Knows
Evan Longoria - Tier 1 3B, 4th round, 31st pick, ADP 14.1, draft value 16.9
Clayton Kershaw - Tier 1 SP, 5th round, 50th pick, ADP 14.5, draft value 35.5
Carlos González - Tier 1 OF, 7th round, 70th pick, ADP 13.4, draft value 56.6

There you have it.  The reigning champ has the best keepers . . . at least on paper.  But will Bloomington Baseball crush the league with all those high value picks?  Time will tell.  The rest of the draft will take place on March 24th.  Until then, we are all still chasing Bo Knows.


  1. Great work, JT! Nice breakdown.

    But in what world do you imagine Starlin is a Tier 3 SS? If you mean "tier" as in 3rd SS off the board, then you would be correct.
    In most formats, he is a Tier 1 SS, and if not, depending how the agency breaks down a "tier", he's at worst a high 2. Certainly not 3.

    And I'm not exactly sure how you estimated the Power Rankings. According to your calculations, all of my keepers have a draft value of more than 120. No other team is close to that.

    1. Nice try, but I'm not going reveal secrets of my own hunchmaster system. Off the field issues aside, Castro is a decent pick. For that matter, I have no idea why Devil wears Prado didn't keep Asdrubal Cabrera.

      My methodology was detailed at the start of this article. Yes your keepers have the best draft value (defined by: pick # - ADP). But, as I said, fantasy value is more important. At least, it's something that can be quantified now. When the non-keeper picks are made, we'll see how much that draft value makes a difference.

  2. That's nice that you approve of the Castro pick, but I didn't hear you say anywhere that you were incorrect about his being a 3rd Tier SS, which he is not. He is clearly a 1st Tier SS. We're talking average (average, mind you) #37 pick overall.
    He's a 1. Of if your rating system is screwy - or focused specifically on a 4x4 or 5x5 breakdown, then maybe he's a high 2. But in our format, he's a 1, hands down.

  3. Our keepers are all about value. If you have a 20th round pick that puts up 400 points that's a much better value than keeping a 5th rounder who puts up 450. This is the main reason that there are 14 players that scored over 500 points last year that are not being kept this season.

  4. I like the look of these power rankings. Also, I'm going to weigh in here and call Castro a tier 2 ss. Tier one is tulo, hanley ramirez and reyes.

  5. So, I can weigh in one not keeping Asdrubal Cabrera... I liked my pitcher keepers, even if Verlander doesn't represent a much value there. My wife would be mad at me if I didn't keep Gordon, plus he was a 400 point player in the last round.